73. David Roodman - Economic history and the road to the singularity

Published: March 3, 2021, 3:20 p.m.

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There\\u2019s a minor mystery in economics that may suggest that things are about to get really, really weird for humanity.

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And that mystery is this: many economic models predict that, at some point, human economic output will become infinite.

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Now, infinities really don\\u2019t tend to happen in the real world. But when they\\u2019re predicted by otherwise sound theories, they tend to indicate a point at which the assumptions of these theories break down in some fundamental way. Often, that\\u2019s because of things like phase transitions: when gases condense or liquids evaporate, some of their thermodynamic parameters go to infinity \\u2014 not because anything \\u201cinfinite\\u201d is really happening, but because the equations that define a gas cease to apply when those gases become liquids and vice-versa.

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So how should we think of economic models that tell us that human economic output will one day reach infinity? Is it reasonable to interpret them as predicting a phase transition in the human economy \\u2014 and if so, what might that transition look like? These are hard questions to answer, but they\\u2019re questions that my guest David Roodman, a Senior Advisor at Open Philanthropy, has thought about a lot.

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David has centered his investigations on what he considers to be a plausible culprit for a potential economic phase transition: the rise of transformative AI technology. His work explores a powerful way to think about how, and even when, transformative AI may change how the economy works in a fundamental way.

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