SI40: Is past performance actually indicative of future returns? ft. Corey Hoffstein

Published: June 16, 2019, 3:54 p.m.

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This week, we\\u2019re joined by Corey Hoffstein from Newfound Research, who also hosts the Flirting With Models podcast.  We discuss his journey into Systematic Investing, why the year you enter the markets will likely impact how you invest in the future, and why random returns can actually be worse for your system than bad returns.  Corey explains the term \\u2018Sequence Risk\\u2019, why investors should avoid being too short-term, why risk can only be transformed and not destroyed, and if past performance is actually indicative of future returns.  We also get Corey\\u2019s views on simplicity versus complexity, how he approaches diversification, and how he invests personally.

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 \\u2013 Intro including discussion of weekly events and the latest news from the FED

05:35 \\u2013 Weekly review of performance

08:50 - Corey\'s journey

22:00 \\u2013 Corey breaks down the 3 components of diversification: What, How and When

35:10 \\u2013 Question: How do you know when your model is broken?

42:15 \\u2013 Question: Do you think TF will continue to work?

52:00 \\u2013 Question: What is sequence risk? & Why we should pay attention to it!

56:50 \\u2013 Question: What do you mean by risk cannot be destroyed it can only be transformed?

01:01:20 \\u2013 Question: How do you convince investors to include TF in their portfolio?

01:06:45 \\u2013 Question: Please discuss simplicity, complexity, model robustness, etc.

01:17:40 \\u2013 Question: How do you prioritize drawdown management above all else?

01:21:20 \\u2013 Question: Why is it easier to predict markets & performance 10'