SI132: Overcoming Recency Bias for Better Decision Making ft. Mark Rzepcyznski

Published: March 21, 2021, 12:54 p.m.

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Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss Jerome Powell\\u2019s recent speech and how central banks can often confuse markets, the potential of Artificial Intelligence in systematic investing, whether or not holding government bonds is a good idea, the recent rise in interest rates and what it means for the stock market, the relationship between correlations and volatility, why policy makers should avoid trying to engineer future expectations, how recency-bias affects our decision making,  complexity versus complicatedness, robotic systematic investing versus human discretionary investing, how to tell the difference between a systematic and discretionary trader by looking at returns only, and why \\u2018low-cost\\u2019 funds can often end up being more expensive than normal.

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In this episode, we discuss:

  • Whether artificial intelligence has a place in systematic investing
  • Interest rates and their effects on the trading markets
  • How correlations can increase volatility
  • The benefits of a more \'hands-off\' approach to policy-making
  • The common perils of \'recency bias\'
  • Spotting a discretionary trader just by looking at returns
  • The hidden costs behind supposed \'low cost\' funds

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 \\u2013 Intro

03:14 \\u2013 Macro recap from Niels

06:36 \\u2013 Weekly review of performance

57:46 \\u2013 Q1; Mike: How useful do you find capture ratios when analysing performance?

1:08:29 \\u2013 Q2; Andy: What do you think about utilising a CTA or Trend Following ETF?

1:14:42 \\u2013...'