Dr. Michael Osterholm: Dont Be Surprised When You Are Surprised.

Published: Jan. 28, 2022, 8:47 p.m.

b'In this crossover episode with Coronavirus Crisis Update, we are joined by Dr. Michael Osterholm, head of CIDRAP at the University of Minnesota, one of the most popular, respected, and trusted communicators on the pandemic. What is the recipe?\\xa0\\xa0Simplicity rules. He learned from his rural Iowa background, \\u201cif something doesn\\u2019t play at the 10:00 o\\u2019clock coffee club at the S&T Caf\\xe9 on the main street of my little town, then it\\u2019s not going to play.\\u201d\\xa0Be frank and honest: \\u201cAlways tell the truth.\\u201d If dark things such as variants lie in the future, do not shy away from spotlighting them.\\xa0But be careful of forecasting too far into the future, which can at times be based on \\u201cpixie dust.\\u201d\\xa0Appeal to both \\u201chearts and minds.\\u201d \\u201cKindness is one of the most important virtues.\\u201d\\xa0In his lauded and highly successful podcast, \\u2018The Osterholm Report: Covid-19,\\u2019\\xa0he is able to \\u201ccombine science, policy, and life all in one venue.\\u201d The anti-vaccine movement has gained substantial strength; witness the \\u2018Defeat the Mandates\\u2019 rally on January 23rd at the Lincoln Memorial, which featured Robert Malone, now a celebrity since embraced by Joe Rogan, who compares public health officials to Nazi Germany.\\xa0\\u201cThis is the biggest challenge to global health in my lifetime.\\u201d\\xa0It threatens childhood immunizations, generates \\u201cdeath threats I have received.\\u201d Many colleagues are burning out and leaving. He and other colleagues from the Biden presidential transition Covid-19 Advisory Group recently laid out a road map for \\u201cthe new normal\\u201d in three Viewpoints published in JAMA. \\u201cWe can\\u2019t keep swinging from surge to surge.\\u201d\\xa0We need a better plan for data, testing, ventilation, rebuilding our health workforce. But we still have to prepare for the unknown. Recall Lewis Carroll\\u2019s advice:\\xa0\\u201cIf you don\\u2019t know where you are going, any road will get you there.\\u201d And \\u201cDon\\u2019t be surprised when you are surprised.\\u201d China\\u2019s \\u2018Zero-Covid\\u2019 approach, based on draconian lockdowns and mass testing, has delivered far better outcomes than we have seen here in the United States. But it will not succeed in the face of Omicron. \\u201cIt is like trying to control the wind.\\u201d\\xa0Something beyond \\u2018Zero-Covid\\u2019 is needed.\\xa0\\nDr. Michael Osterholm is Director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) at the University of Minnesota.'