Round Table 153 - DM's Deep Dive, DM Survey, and the Future of D&D

Published: Feb. 1, 2017, 8:30 a.m.

b'Panelists:\\n1)Topher Kohan (Host)\\nEmail: topheratl@gmail.com\\nTwitter: @TopherATL\\nFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/topher.kohan\\n\\xa0\\n\\xa0\\n2) Mike Shea (Guest)\\nEmail: mike@mikeshea.net\\nTwitter: slyflourish\\nFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/slyflourish/\\nSite:\\xa0http://slyflourish.com\\nOther: https://dontsplitthepodcastnetwork.com/dms-deep-dive/\\n\\xa0\\nLinks:\\nThetomeshow.com\\nPatreon.com/thetomeshow\\nwww.nobleknight.com\\n\\nGet to know you Question:\\n"What is more important the rules or a good story?"\\n\\xa0\\nTopic 1)\\nTell us about the new show\\n\\xa0\\nNew Show: DM\\u2019s Deep Dive https://dontsplitthepodcastnetwork.com/dms-deep-dive/\\nOn the Don\\u2019t Split the Podcast Network: https://dontsplitthepodcastnetwork.com/\\nTwitch: https://www.twitch.tv/dontsplitthepodcast\\n\\xa0\\nTopic 2)\\nDM Survey:\\xa0http://slyflourish.com/2016_dm_survey_results.html\\nLazy DM: http://slyflourish.com/lazydm/\\n\\xa0\\nTopic 3)\\nFuture of D&D\\nIn his early work on good judgment, summarized in Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?,[2] Tetlock conducted a set of small scale forecasting tournaments between 1984 and 2003. The forecasters were 284 experts from a variety of fields, including government officials, professors, journalists, and others, with many opinions, from Marxists to free-marketeers.\\nThe tournaments solicited roughly 28,000 predictions about the future and found the forecasters were often only slightly more accurate than chance, and usually worse than basic extrapolation algorithms, especially on longer\\u2013range forecasts three to five years out. Forecasters with the biggest news media profiles were also especially bad. This work suggests that there is a perverse inverse relationship between fame and accuracy.\\n\\xa0\\nhttps://www.amazon.com/Expert-Political-Judgment-Good-Know/dp/0691128715\\n\\xa0\\n\\u201cPeople who spend their time, and earn their living, studying a particular topic produce poorer predictions than dart-throwing monkeys who would have distributed their choices evenly over the options.\\u201d\\n\\xa0\\nPsychologist who won a Nobel Prize in Economics\\nhttps://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374533555\\n\\xa0\\nEVERYBODY\\u2019S AN EXPERT\\nhttp://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2005/12/05/everybodys-an-expert\\n\\xa0\\n86% of investment managers stunk in 2014\\nhttp://money.cnn.com/2015/03/12/investing/investing-active-versus-passive-funds/\\n\\xa0\\nTopic 3a)\\nWhere do you want the future D&D to go\\n\\xa0\\nEmail us with your comments!\\nhttp://www.thetomeshow.com\\nthetomeshow@gmail.com'