Richard Arnold: US about to top 500,000 Covid-19 deaths

Published: Feb. 21, 2021, 8:36 p.m.

Just over a year since the first known US Covid-19 death, more than 500,000 people will have died from the disease by the end of this week.
"It's something that is historic. It's nothing like we've ever been though in the last 102 years since the 1918 influenza pandemic," said Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
"It really is a terrible situation that we've been through and that we're still going through. And that's the reason why we keep insisting to continue with the public health measures -- because we don't want this to get much worse than it already is."
More than 497,600 people have died from Covid-19 in the US, according to Johns Hopkins University.
And another 91,000 Americans are projected to die from the disease by June 1, according to the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.
Decreases in new Covid-19 cases and hospitalisations in recent weeks have prompted some state and local leaders to loosen restrictions.
But as new coronavirus variants spread, health experts say it's critical to double down on safety measures to prevent yet another catastrophic surge.
"The most uncertain driver of the trajectory of the epidemic over the next four months is how individuals will respond to steady declines in daily cases and deaths," the IHME team wrote.
"More rapid increases in mobility or reductions in mask use can easily lead to increasing cases and deaths in many states in April."
'Rapid growth' of the B.1.1.7 strain expected
Several new concerning variants of coronavirus have been found in the US, including the highly contagious B.1.1.7 strain first detected in the UK.
The IHME team said the B.1.1.7 strain likely accounts for less than 20% of coronavirus infections now, but could jump to 80% by late April.
And the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has projected a "rapid growth" of the B.1.1.7 strain across the US, saying it will likely become the predominant variant in the country by March.
The good news: Americans can fend off the B.1.1.7 strain (and other variants) by wearing masks, keeping their distance from others, and getting vaccinated once they're able to.
Lab studies suggest vaccines can protect against coronavirus variants. And health experts say vaccinations help prevent the virus from mutating further.
Rapid, widespread vaccinations are important to stay ahead of "the inevitable evolution of variants that could dangerously accelerate the trajectory of the pandemic," CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky co-wrote in the medical journal JAMA.
The troubling B.1.351 strain has spread to New York
Another disturbing variant, the B.1.351 strain first found in South Africa, has now been detected in a Nassau County resident, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Sunday.
The CDC says at least 10 states have reported cases of the B.1.351 strain, which has worried scientists because it has a mutation that might affect the efficacy of current vaccines.
In lab studies testing the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines, researchers did find reduced antibody responses to viruses genetically engineered to look like the B.1.351 variant. Despite those reductions, experts say they believe the vaccines still likely offer good protection against this strain.
"We don't believe the South African variant is more deadly, but it may be more contagious," Nassau County Executive Laura Curran said after the B.1.351 strain was found from a New York resident.
And "with the discovery of a case of the South African variant in the state, it's more important than ever for New Yorkers to stay vigilant, wear masks, wash hands and stay socially distanced," Gov. Cuomo said.
"We are in a race right now -- between our ability to vaccinate and these variants which are actively trying to proliferate. And we will only win that race if we stay smart and disciplined."
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