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One of the growth industries these days is alarmism.\\xa0

There has been some solid reading to be done this week in Australia as they trumpeted some stunning so-called facts on climate change, based on "ground-breaking\\xa0new research".\\xa0

The first claim is that globally we will be paying $1.5 trillion more each year on our debt as a result of the world not being contained, climate wise.\\xa0

The second is that, in Australia specifically, it will cost the economy over $400 billion over the next 40 years.\\xa0

To be fair, the estimate is between $135 and $423 billion, so it\'s a fairly wide target. What an amazing talent it is to be able to bring the estimate into within a million or so, 40 years out from the actual event.\\xa0

"Tourism will be damaged because people won\'t come because the beaches wont be there". Think about that for a moment; the beaches wont be there. What an astonishing thing to claim.\\xa0\\xa0

Perhaps even more astonishing is the Treasurer has embraced this report and will be using it as part of his ongoing thinking, in terms of the Australian economy.\\xa0

It leads to a question or two around just how much energy you want to put into scaring the bejesus out of people. How much do you want to hobble your economic prospects by accepting as gospel what must be, surely, little more than a guess?\\xa0

Forecasts, as we have learned over and over during the Covid period, are famous for being hopelessly wrong.\\xa0\\xa0

The Treasury here forecast in May, as part of the Budget, a series of numbers, whether it be debt or tax paid that are now, just two short months later, completely and utterly wide of the mark.\\xa0\\xa0

And we think we can nail down a number 40 years down the track do we?\\xa0

In that is the danger of obsession and ideology. Nothing wrong with thinking about things like climate change, maybe even worrying a bit about climate change.\\xa0

Just this week we have seen the Auckland flood damage buyout deal, on the back of the Hawkes Bay buyout deal. Disruption is real, storms are real and change and an element of upheaval for some seems an increasing reality.\\xa0

But setting off the alarms screaming \\u201cfire\\u201d 40 years in advance and taking in no real estimates of scientific advancement strikes me as being ever-so slightly premature, if not immature.\\xa0

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