b'
My working theory for this year\'s election was re-enforced Saturday night in New South Wales.
\\nMy working theory for the October election here is that the damage for Labour is done.
\\nChris Hipkins can burn as much policy as he wants and the media can write about him being more popular than the predecessor over and over. The key is, the damage is done and the rot has set in.
\\nYou have a recession, you have crime touching each and every one of us, you have the myriad of problems we have discussed and debated over and over again.
\\nEssentially, the Government has been found out to be useless and time has killed them.
\\nTime kills all Governments eventually. It just depends how good you are as to how much time you get.
\\nIn New South Wales on Saturday night Chris Minns won by a mile and yet, for the past few weeks, the polls had told us it was neck and neck.
\\nThere was a general sense that the coalition was out of time, that they most likely would not win.
\\nBut most pundits, based on polling, were predicting a close Labour win as a minority Government, with the help of the Greens or Teals or Independents needed.
\\nIt didn\\u2019t come to pass and the polls were wrong, which goes to my theory, like here, the decision was made. Polls are irrelevant - what you might say is not what you might do.
\\nPeople subconsciously decide what\'s right and what isn\'t, what\'s working and what isn\'t.
\\nGladys Berejiklian was run out of office on a trumped-up charge of some crooked behaviour, a verdict, by the way, that still hasn\\u2019t been returned. The replacement was OK, but he wasn\\u2019t Gladys.
\\nThe state is beset with all sorts of mess including endless public transport issues and essentially people decided, and decided a long time ago, when they next got a chance to send a message, they would.
\\nAnd they did.
\\nOn Saturday night Labour piled across the line with room to spare.
\\nThe close race wasn\\u2019t close, the polls weren\'t right. The same thing, my gut says, has and is happening here.
\\nRead the polls if you want, fall for the headlines if you like.
\\nBut here\'s my bet - come Saturday night October 14, the same story will unfold here.
\\nWe have already decided and the poll on the night won\'t be anywhere near like the polls you see at the moment.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
'