Peter Ricchiuti - Youre Better Off Investing When Things Look Miserable" | #112

Published: July 11, 2018, 5 p.m.

b'In Episode 112, we welcome Professor Peter Ricchiuti. We start with Peter\\u2019s origin story, which includes his time in the investment world, then managing money for the state of Louisiana, then teaching at Tulane where he created, and now runs, the Burkenroad Reports program (a student stock research program).\\nDiving into investing, Meb asks Peter about his broad approach to the markets and the economy. Peter tells us that from an economist\\u2019s perspective, \\u201clabor\\u201d is a huge factor when evaluating economic conditions. And he believes the U.S. is facing challenges with its labor pool. From a narrower, equity-perspective, Peter tells us that right now things look perhaps a little too good. He notes \\u201cyou\\u2019re better off investing when things look miserable.\\u201d At present, given so much market optimism, he\\u2019s pulling back.\\nThe conversation turns toward the global market, and how interconnected we all are these days. Peter tells us that part of the reason we\\u2019ve done so well over the past several years is because so many countries were growing at a positive pace at the same time. This dovetails into a discussion about today\\u2019s elevated PEs. Peter believes that, here in the U.S., we\\u2019re on a \\u201csugar high\\u201d from the tax cuts. Companies have been using that money to buy back stock or buy each other. But what they haven\\u2019t been doing as much is building for expansion. Peter believes companies haven\\u2019t been focusing as much on planning for future growth.\\nNext, Meb asks a question that he admits hating to get himself \\u2013 what causes this bull market run to end? What are the main risk factors?\\nPeter points toward higher interest rates. He believes we\\u2019re going to see Treasuries at 3.5%. Plus, earnings growth will begin to slow. He tells us that the economy is at or close to its peak right now \\u2013 it could last longer, but as far as the peak goes, we\\u2019re in that general area now.\\nThe conversation turns toward the Burkenroad program, bouncing around a bit: An interesting takeaway from a lunch with a small-cap company\\u2019s CEO\\u2026 the attributes that Peter and his students look for in the companies they vet\\u2026 the illiquidity advantage over institutions\\u2026 even one great find through the program \\u2013 a stock that went from $0.72 to about $150.\\nMeb asks which mistakes the students make repeatedly. Peter points toward looking at the past more so than evaluating the future. One manifestation of this is paying more attention to past earnings than the prospect of future earnings. Also, many of the students lack patience.\\nThere\\u2019s way more in this fun episode: The recent Buffett op-ed piece on short-termism and Peter\\u2019s take on how to teach students to focus on the long-term\\u2026 How Peter\\u2019s approach to markets has changed through his experiences running the program\\u2026 The actual Burkenroad Fund, which has been around about 17 years and outperformed boatloads of competition\\u2026 And of course, Peter\\u2019s most memorable trade.\\nGet all the details in Episode 112.\\nLearn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices'