Michael Covel - "We Can't Make a Prediction Worth a Damn" | #21

Published: Sept. 21, 2016, 5 p.m.

b'Episode 21 starts with a \\u201cthank you\\u201d to Michael, as it was his advice on starting a podcast that got \\u201cThe Meb Faber Show\\u201d off the ground. But Michael and Meb quickly turn to Michael\\u2019s expertise, trend following. This is how Michael summarizes it: \\u201cWe don\\u2019t know what\\u2019s going to happen. We can\\u2019t make a prediction worth a damn. The market starts to move, whatever that market might be. We get on board, and we don\\u2019t get out until it goes against us and we have an exit signal.\\u201d They then turn to the infamous \\u201cturtle\\u201d story. It involves Richard Dennis, a great trader from the 1970\\u2019s, who made his first million by about age 25. By the early 80\\u2019s, he was worth about $200 million. Around this time, the movie \\u201cTrading Places\\u201d came out (two millionaires make a bet on the outcome of training a bum to be a financial whiz, while taking a financial whiz and, effectively, turning him into a bum). Richard felt he could similarly train a financial no-nothing, turning him into a great trader. Richard\\u2019s partner felt it wouldn\\u2019t work. So they made a bet. How\\u2019d it turn out? Three or four years later, the group Richard trained had made, on aggregate, around $100 million. Meb then suggests that a profitable strategy such as trend following, that seems to work, should attract lots of investor dollars in the long run. So why then doesn\\u2019t trend following have more \\u201cbig money\\u201d institutional investors using it? Michael points toward drawdowns \\u2013 \\u201cthe scarlet letter of trend following\\u201d \\u2013 even though buy-and-hold has plenty of drawdowns too. The guys then agree that all investing is purely speculation. We like to believe there\\u2019s more certainty, but that\\u2019s not the case. They then bring up a quote from Ed Seykota: \\u201cWin or lose, everyone gets what they want out of the market. Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.\\u201d Michael tells us this is true not only for investing, but life as well. Next, Meb asks about Michael\\u2019s podcast, which results in a great recap of how Michael got started and how he grew it to be the success it is today. The guys then discuss the mass of great investing content out there, for example, the hours of great interviews from Michael\\u2019s podcast\\u2014where is a new listener supposed to start? It\\u2019s overwhelming. Michael gives us his thoughts. This leads to Meb\\u2019s latest entrepreneurial business idea (which some listener should run with and make lots of money). There\\u2019s plenty more, including the guys touching on sensory deprivation, yoga/meditation, and of course, what each of them find beautiful, useful, or downright magical \\u2013 Michael has about seven for us. What are they? Find out in Episode 21.\\nLearn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices'