Eric Falkenstein - I Think in the Long Run (Cryptocurrencies) Are Going to Work | #130

Published: Nov. 21, 2018, 6 p.m.

b'In Episode 130, we welcome Eric Falkenstein. The show starts with Meb and Eric discussing ice fishing in Minnesota (where Eric is currently located). But then Meb asks for Eric\\u2019s origin story. Eric tells us about being a teacher\\u2019s assistant for Hyman Minsky, wanting to be a macro economist, the turn that pushed him toward investing, and a well-timed put option that made him a boatload in the \\u201987 crash.\\nNext, the conversation turns toward Eric\\u2019s interest in low volatility. He tells us about being one of the first people to study low-vol. He was early, and the broader investing community wasn\\u2019t ready for the findings. People dismissed the suggestion that high volatility stocks (with high risk) didn\\u2019t outperform low vol stocks. Eric tells us that given all this, \\u201clow vol\\u201d wasn\\u2019t enough of a selling point \\u2013 you had to layer on another factor just to get people to pay attention.\\nMeb asks about the main value proposition of low-vol. It is a smoother ride? Better returns? And why does this factor persist?\\nEric\\u2019s answer touches on CAPM, high beta, low beta, risk, various premiums, high flying stocks, and alpha discovery. This bleeds into a conversation about factoring timing relative to valuations. Eric tells us he tried factor timing, but didn\\u2019t find it to be too helpful out of sample.\\nThe conversation bounces around a bit, with the guys touching on Meb\\u2019s paper, \\u201cA Quantitative Approach to Asset Allocation,\\u201d bonds and how the US is flirting with the top bucket of bond yields, whether low vol translates to global markets and different asset classes, and Eric\\u2019s take on risk parity.\\nAfter that, the guys turn to crypto. Despite the current pullback, Eric believes \\u201cin the long run, it\\u2019s going to work.\\u201d He believes that crypto will eventually replace Dollars as people will want an alternative to fiat currency, something not susceptible to manipulation by politicians. He tells us that he sees a tipping point coming.\\nThere\\u2019s plenty more in this episode \\u2013 Eric\\u2019s books, pithy quotes and maxims, how people often think about the specific investment they want, but not the \\u201cplumbing\\u201d such as the bid/ask spread of that investment, the volume, and so on\\u2026 And as always, Eric\\u2019s most memorable trade.\\nGet all the details in Episode 130.\\nLearn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices'