Craig Leupold & Jim Sullivan - From a Commercial Property Standpoint, We See Values Drifting Sideways Over the Next 12 Months" | #96

Published: March 7, 2018, 6 p.m.

b'In Episode 96, we welcome two of the brightest guys in real estate, Craig Leupold and Jim Sullivan of Green Street.\\nAfter touching on Craig\\u2019s and Jim\\u2019s backgrounds, the guys jump into real estate, with Meb asking about Green Street\\u2019s approach to the real estate markets (public and private) and how they think about valuation.\\nCraig gives us an overview, referencing Green Street\\u2019s REIT research (focusing on the public markets), their real estate analytics (focusing on private markets), and their advisory consulting group. Craig touches upon lots of ideas \\u2013 understanding the value of the properties owned by the various companies\\u2026 identifying the associated premiums or discounts at which the companies might be trading\\u2026 a deeper dive into their real estate analytics lineup\\u2026 looking at how to allocate capital\\u2026\\nMeb asks how the real estate world looks today, and what\\u2019s the outlook for 2018. Craig tells us that with the exception of retail real estate, most sectors are seeing increases in rents and occupancies. But fundamentals have moved from \\u201cgreat,\\u201d to \\u201cgood,\\u201d to now, \\u201cokay.\\u201d He goes on to give us his growth forecast over the next four years, as well as what he expects for commercial pricing over the next 12 months.\\nWhen Meb brings up \\u201creturns,\\u201d the guys make the distinction between public and private markets and how there\\u2019s a divergence. Private real estate is generally fairly valued today, yet in the public market, REITs are trading at an 11% discount to their unleveraged asset value.\\nJim dives into greater detail on this topic, telling us how the average REIT should trade at a modest premium to NAV. The reason for this is that an investor should be willing to pay the fair market value for the property owned by the REIT, but then there\\u2019s the added benefit of the management team and the liquidity of the REIT structure; both deserve a premium. But again, today, we\\u2019re not seeing this premium today \\u2013 quite the opposite, in fact.\\nMeb brings up valuation, asking about how to distinguish between buying opportunities and value traps. Jim tells us it\\u2019s situational, and depends on the property type. This dovetails into a discussion about pessimism in the mall sector.\\nSoon, the conversation turns toward rising rates. The common opinion is that rising rates are bad for real estate, but Jim tells us it\\u2019s more complicated than that. If rates are rising due to our economy accelerating, then that could be positive for commercial real estate, leading to higher occupancies and rising rents.\\nThere\\u2019s far more in this episode: activism in the real estate space\\u2026 how the real estate market looks around the world\\u2026 the challenge of figuring out what risk-adjusted returns should be in different global locations\\u2026 which geographies look particularly attractive today\\u2026 farmland REITs\\u2026 and Craig\\u2019s and Jim\\u2019s one piece of advice to investors looking to allocate to the REIT space.\\nAll this, as well and Craig\\u2019s and Jim\\u2019s most memorable trades, in Episode 96.\\nLearn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices'