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How a Russian cyberwar in Ukraine could ripple out globally
Soldiers and tanks may care about national borders. Cyber doesn't.

But while Ukraine continues to feel the brunt of Russia’s attacks, government and cybersecurity experts are worried that these hacking offensives could spill out globally, threatening Europe, the United States, and beyond.

The US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) warned critical infrastructure operators to take “urgent, near-term steps” against cyber threats, citing the recent attacks against Ukraine as a reason to be on alert for possible threats to US assets. The agency also pointed to two cyberattacks from 2017, NotPetya and WannaCry, which both spiraled out of control from their initial targets, spread rapidly around the internet, and impacted the entire world at a cost of billions of dollars. The parallels are clear: NotPetya was a Russian cyberattack targeting Ukraine during a time of high tensions.

Unintentional consequences?
The knock-on effects for the rest of the world might not be limited to intentional reprisals by Russian operatives. Unlike old-fashioned war, cyberwar is not confined by borders and can more easily spiral out of control.

A sophisticated toolbox
There is serious debate about the calculus inside Russia and what kind of aggression Moscow would want to undertake outside of Ukraine.

“These cyber incidents can be nonviolent, they are reversible, and most of the consequences are in perception,” says Hultquist. “They corrode institutions, they make us look insecure, they make governments look weak. They often don’t rise to the level that would provoke an actual physical, military response. I believe these capabilities are on the table.”

Mick Smith, Consultant M: (619) 227.3118

E: mick.smith@wsiworld.com

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