Ep. 390: The Valuation Circus Is In Town

Published: Sept. 19, 2020, 5:12 p.m.

b'We recently wrote about the \\u201cSpeculation Era\\u201d in Tech stocks. It doesn\\u2019t have to be this way. Institutional investors don\\u2019t have a gun to their heads forcing them to chase performance in companies such as TSLA and SNOW. Yet many are doing just that, throwing time-tested investment principles out the window. Many justify their outrageously expensive portfolio holdings based on out-year earnings estimates. No earnings? No problem. 50x revenue for ABC Inc? Sure. 100x revenue for XYZ Corp? Yes, I\\u2019ll buy some.\\nWhat\\u2019s driving this valuation mania? Two things in my view:\\n\\n1.) Many portfolio managers don\\u2019t have a clue about the companies they own. They wouldn\\u2019t know a data mart from Walmart. Poor diligence and lack of understanding makes buysiders suckers for VC\\u2019s looking to float companies at exorbitant valuations. SNOW for example was valued at $12 billion in May \\u2013 a rich valuation \\u2013 only to go out at $30 billion on IPO day (Sept. 16th), and proceeded to more than double in value that same day. P.T. Barnum would love today\\u2019s buyside crowd.\\n\\n2.) Buyside compensation models are too heavily-weighted to short-term performance. This leads to risky behavior and short-term decision making at the expense of long-term, consistent performance \\u2013 i.e. \\u201cinvesting.\\u201d'