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Intro: Pratik Chougule discusses a recent Manifold meetup he attended and the importance of attending in-person forecasting community events

Part 1: Rule3O3 joins the show for the first time to discuss epistemic humility in political betting and how to realize the promise of political prediction markets.

Part 2: Ben Freeman and Pratik Chougule continue their conversation on 2024 Republican presidential primary. Ben and Pratik discuss whether a fractured Republican field will save Trump again or whether the electorate will rally around an alternative.

Timestamps
0:00: Pratik introduces the two segments
1:12: Manifold and the importance of in-person forecasting events
6:34: Rule3O3 intro
8:26: Political prediction market efficiency
10:29: Epistemic humility in prediction markets
13:26: Technical analysis
16:20: Fun in prediction markets
18:43: Ben Freeman on whether a fractured Republican field will save Trump again or whether the electorate will rally around DeSantis
20:43: High-profile Republican endorsements
23:19: Attacks on Trump
27:39: Trump's financial problems
29:41: Will Republicans coalesce around an alternative
33:41: DeSantis's strengths and weaknesses
39:54: Ben's picks on PredictIt
41:57: Pence lottos