Podcasts Education Self-Improvement Conversations with Tyler Philip E. Tetlock on Forecasting and Foraging as a Fox

Philip E. Tetlock on Forecasting and Foraging as a Fox

Published: April 22, 2020, noon

b'

Accuracy is only one of the things we want from forecasters, says Philip Tetlock, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania and co-author of Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. People also look to forecasters for ideological assurance, entertainment, and to minimize regret\\u2013such as that caused by not taking a global pandemic seriously enough. The best forecasters aren\\u2019t just intelligent, but fox-like integrative thinkers capable of navigating values that are conflicting or in tension.

He joined Tyler to discuss whether the world as a whole is becoming harder to predict, whether Goldman Sachs traders can beat forecasters, what inferences we can draw from analyzing the speech of politicians, the importance of interdisciplinary teams, the qualities he looks for in leaders, the reasons he\\u2019s skeptical machine learning will outcompete his research team, the year he thinks the ascent of the West became inevitable, how research on counterfactuals can be applied to modern debates, why people with second cultures tend to make better forecasters, how to become more fox-like, and more.

Read a\\xa0full transcript\\xa0enhanced with helpful links, or watch the\\xa0full video.

Recorded March 26th, 2020

Other ways to connect

'