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https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-the-collapse-of

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[This is the thirteenth of many finalists in the book review contest. It\\u2019s not by me - it\\u2019s by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done, to prevent their identity from influencing your decisions. I\\u2019ll be posting about two of these a week for several months. When you\\u2019ve read all of them, I\\u2019ll ask you to vote for your favorite, so remember which ones you liked. If you like reading these reviews, check out\\xa0point 3 here\\xa0for a way you can help move the contest forward by reading lots more of them - SA]

Joseph Tainter\\u2019s explanation for why complex societies collapse in one sentence:\\xa0the collapse of a society is a response to declining marginal returns on investment in complexity.

Tainter uses \\u2018complexity\\u2019 pretty loosely. He\\u2019s referring to a broad set of things that include agriculture, fuel extraction, scientific research, education, and sociopolitical complexity. He notes that in any area that produces something good for a society, the lowest-hanging fruit is plucked first, and then value gets harder and harder to extract until there\\u2019s little room for improvement. States are the biggest manifestation and driver of social complexity (and I\\u2019ll talk mostly about states in the rest of the review) but he\\u2019s talking about the abstract property of a society \\u2013\\xa0how large it is, how many specialized social roles it has, how many mechanisms for organizing or doing things.

In Tainter\\u2019s model, states exist to solve problems. You can think of them as either solving collective social problems, like getting big irrigation systems to work (\\u2018integration theory\\u2019), working to placate / oppress the productive populace enough that the elite can keep extracting surplus from them (\\u2018conflict theory\\u2019). Either way, states tend to increase in complexity in order to deal with new challenges. That increased complexity imposes greater costs per capita. When the system hits some critical point on the return curve (highest point the graph below), the next stressor makes the state try to unlock the next stage of complexity, which demands more resources than the population can bear. Peasants revolt, republics break away, and the state falls apart.