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https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/when-will-the-fda-approve-paxlovid

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https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/when-will-the-fda-approve-paxlovid

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You thought it wasn\\u2019t going to be a prediction market post, but surprise, it\\u2019s a prediction market post!

Metaculus predicts January 1 as the median date for the FDA approving Paxlovid. They estimate a 92% chance it will get approved by March.

For context: a recent study by Pfizer, the pharma company backing the drug, found Paxlovid decreased hospitalizations and deaths from COVID by a factor of ten