The Control Group Is Out of Control [Classic]

Published: Oct. 19, 2019, 9:48 a.m.

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Link:\\xa0https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/04/28/the-control-group-is-out-of-control/

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Allan Crossman calls parapsychology\\xa0the control group for science.

That is, in let\\u2019s say a drug testing experiment, you give some people the drug and they recover. That doesn\\u2019t tell you much until you give some other people a placebo drug you\\xa0know\\xa0doesn\\u2019t work \\u2013 but which they themselves believe in \\u2013 and see how many of\\xa0them\\xa0recover. That number tells you how many people will recover whether the drug works or not. Unless people on your real drug do significantly better than people on the placebo drug, you haven\\u2019t found anything.

On the meta-level, you\\u2019re studying some phenomenon and you get some positive findings. That doesn\\u2019t tell you much until you take some other researchers who are studying a phenomenon you\\xa0know\\xa0doesn\\u2019t exist \\u2013 but which they themselves believe in \\u2013 and see how many of\\xa0them\\xa0get positive findings. That number tells you how many studies will discover positive results whether the phenomenon is real or not. Unless studies of the real phenomenon do significantly better than studies of the placebo phenomenon, you haven\\u2019t found anything.

Trying to set up placebo science would be a logistical nightmare. You\\u2019d have to find a phenomenon that definitely doesn\\u2019t exist, somehow convince a whole community of scientists across the world that it does, and fund them to study it for a couple of decades without them figuring it out.

Luckily we have a natural experiment in terms of parapsychology \\u2013 the study of psychic phenomena \\u2013 which most reasonable people believe don\\u2019t exist, but which a community of practicing scientists believes in and publishes papers on all the time.

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