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https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/skills-plateau-because-of-decay-and

Followup to: Why Do Test Scores Plateau; Ritalin Works But School Isn\\u2019t Worth Paying Attention To

Why Do Skills Plateau?

Economist Philip Frances finds that creative artists, on average, do their best work in their late 30s. Isn\\u2019t this strange? However good a writer is at age 35, they should be even better at 55 with twenty more years of practice. Sure, middle age might bring some mild proto-cognitive-impairment, but surely nothing so dire that it cancels out twenty extra years!

A natural objection is that maybe they\\u2019ve maxed out their writing ability; further practice won\\u2019t help. But this can\\u2019t be true; most 35 year old writers aren\\u2019t Shakespeare or Dickens, so higher tiers of ability must be possible. But you can\\u2019t get there just by practicing more. If acheivement is a function of talent and practice, at some point returns on practice decrease near zero.

The same is true for doctors. Young doctors (under 40) have slightly better cure rates than older doctors (eg 40-49). The linked study doesn\\u2019t go any younger (eg under 35, under 30\\u2026). However, Goodwin et al find that only first-year doctors suffer from inexperience; by a doctor\\u2019s second year, she\\u2019s doing about as well as she ever will. Why? Wouldn\\u2019t you expect someone who\\u2019s practiced medicine for twenty years to be better than someone who\\u2019s only done it for two?