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Superconductor autopsy -- Prediction mutual funds -- Flight delays

Sorry guys, LK-99 doesn\\u2019t work. The prediction markets have dropped from highs in the 40s down to 5 - 10. It\\u2019s over.

What does this tell us about prediction markets? Were they dumb to ever believe at all? Or were they aggregating the evidence effectively, only to update after new evidence came in?

I claim they were dumb. Although the media was running with the \\u201cmaybe there\\u2019s a room-temperature superconductor\\u201d story, the smartest physicists I knew were all very skeptical. The markets tracked the level of media hype, not the level of expert opinion. Here\\u2019s my evidence:

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-82823