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https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-62121

Among this month\\u2019s interesting Metaculus predictions:

If Puerto Rico gets statehood, will their first two senators both be Democrats?\\xa050%. I\\u2019d seen accusations that the Democrats want Puerto Rican statehood to seize a Senate advantage, and counterarguments that no, PR isn\\u2019t as solid-blue as people like to think, but this is the first time I\\u2019ve ever seen the \\u201crisk\\u201d of a PR Republican Senator quantified. Higher than I thought!

Will Jeff Bezos make a big investment in anti-aging this year?\\xa025%
Aubrey de Grey has hinted that somebody really big is about to get into the anti-aging/longevity field, and speculation has centered on a newly-retired and not-getting-any-younger (so far!) Jeff Bezos. This prediction resolves as true if Bezos puts at least $50 million into anti-aging.

Will crypto sites default before 2023?\\xa0Bitmex\\xa026%, Binance\\xa015%, Coinbase\\xa05%
Not many predictions here, so don\\u2019t take these numbers too seriously. I also don\\u2019t know what a \\u201cdefault\\u201d would mean in this sense - default to at least one customer, but everyone else is okay? Lose all its money to a hack?

What will Prospera\\u2019s population be in 2035?\\xa0Approximately 0
Prospera is a charter city taking shape in Honduras; see\\xa0here\\xa0for more. They\\u2019re planning to have 10,000 residents by 2025, and 100,000 by some unspecified point in the future. Metaculus doesn\\u2019t think it will happen; more than half of forecasters say they\\u2019ll have fewer than 100 residents in 2035 (presumably because they have failed and ceased to exist) and only 10% of forecasters think they\\u2019ll have more than 10,000, which would be a bare minimum for partial success. So far