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Those yearly\\xa0\\u201cpredictions for next year\\u201d\\xa0posts are starting to reach the limit of their usefulness. Not much changes from year to year, and most of what does change is hard to capture in objective probabilistic predictions.

So in honor of this blog\\u2019s five year anniversary, here are some predictions for the next five years. All predictions to be graded on 2/15/2023: