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https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/09/05/book-review-surfing-uncertainty/

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[Related to:\\xa0It\\u2019s Bayes All The Way Up,\\xa0Why Are Transgender People Immune To Optical Illusions?,\\xa0Can We Link Perception And Cognition?]

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Sometimes I have the fantasy of being able to glut myself on Knowledge. I imagine meeting a time traveler from 2500, who takes pity on me and gives me a book from the future where all my questions have been answered, one after another. What\\u2019s consciousness? That\\u2019s in Chapter 5. How did something arise out of nothing? Chapter 7. It all makes perfect intuitive sense and is fully vouched by unimpeachable authorities. I assume something like this is how everyone spends their first couple of days in Heaven, whatever it is they do for the rest of Eternity.

And every so often, my fantasy comes true. Not by time travel or divine intervention, but by failing so badly at paying attention to the literature that by the time I realize people are working on a problem it\\u2019s already been investigated, experimented upon, organized into a paradigm, tested, and then placed in a nice package and wrapped up with a pretty pink bow so I can enjoy it all at once.

The predictive processing model is one of these well-wrapped packages. Unbeknownst to me, over the past decade or so neuroscientists have come up with a real\\xa0theory\\xa0of how the brain works \\u2013 a real unifying framework theory like Darwin\\u2019s or Einstein\\u2019s \\u2013 and it\\u2019s beautiful and it makes complete sense.

Surfing Uncertainty\\xa0isn\\u2019t pop science and isn\\u2019t easy reading. Sometimes it\\u2019s on the\\xa0