BROADCASTS.com

https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/08/2019-predictions-calibration-results/

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At the beginning of every year, I make predictions. At the end of every year, I score them (this year I\u2019m very late). Here are\xa02014,\xa02015,\xa02016,\xa02017, and\xa02018.

And here are the predictions I made for 2019. Strikethrough\u2019d are false. Intact are true. Italicized are getting thrown out because I can\u2019t decide if they\u2019re true or not. All of these judgments were as of December 31 2019, not as of now.

Please don\u2019t complain that 50% predictions don\u2019t mean anything; I know this is true but there are some things I\u2019m genuinely 50-50 unsure of. Some predictions are redacted because they involve my private life or the lives of people close to me. A few that started off redacted stopped being secret; I\u2019ve put those in [brackets].