SI67: The psychology of predictions

Published: Dec. 23, 2019, 3:13 p.m.

This week, we touch on the difference a year makes, how good position sizing can reduce anxiety, the recent article from AQR by Cliff Asness,  why a meaningful allocation to Trend Following might be considered a must for any portfolio, the psychology of prediction, and some of the drawbacks of Trading from chart patterns.  Questions we cover this week include: Would CTAs want to publish their returns to investors less frequently?  Does history always \u2018rhyme\u2019? Is the Fibonacci sequence a reliable indicator?  How do you differentiate Trend Following from a typical Long Volatility strategy?

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

-----


Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT\u2019s TRUE ? \u2013 most CIO\u2019s read 50+ books each year \u2013 get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book \u201cTen Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio\u201d here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 \u2013 Intro

01:37 \u2013 Macro recap from Niels

03:10 \u2013 Weekly review of performance

11:55  \u2013 Top tweets (starting with tweet about recent Cliff Asness article from AQR)

50:48 \u2013 Announcement of future podcast guest, Andreas Clenow, in January 2020

53:47 \u2013 Question 1: Mike; How would you differentiate Trend Following from a typical Long-Volatility strategy?

57:50 \u2013 Question 2 Drew; Does the strategy of buying into a Trend Following fund during its drawdowns count as a form of Value Investing, and therefore, hypocritical to Trend Following philosophy?

01:03:37 \u2013 Benchmark performance update

Copyright \xa9 2024 \u2013 CMC AG \u2013 All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my...