SI151 Long-Term Profitability vs Short-Term Luck ft. Moritz Seibert

Published: July 31, 2021, 10 p.m.

Today we\u2019re joined by Moritz Seibert to discuss the efficacy of backtests, how to build a profitable spread trading model, Moritz\u2019s addition of Ethereum futures to his portfolio, why commodities such as coal should still be traded, how to incorporate macro data into a systematic strategy, how to distinguish between long-term profitability and shorter-term luck, and the alternatives to Microsoft Excel for managing market data in a Trend Following system.

-----

EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool

In this episode, we discuss:

  • How effective Backtests can be
  • Apply Trend Following models to synthetic markets
  • Ethereum futures
  • Why 'dirty fuel' markets should still be traded
  • Combining macro data such as inflation into a Trend Following strategy
  • Distinguishing between a lucky streak and a robust system
  • How to manage market data for those who aren't familiar with coding

-----


Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT\u2019s TRUE ? \u2013 most CIO\u2019s read 50+ books each year \u2013 get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book \u201cTen Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio\u201d here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

01:44 - Macro recap from Niels

04:41 - Weekly review of returns

10:09 - Discussion on Rich Brennan\u2019s findings that a Trend Follower\u2019s edge comes from the market data itself rather than the trading models

13:57 - Q1: Henry: Do you recommend any educational resources that will help me to build a spread trading model, and can Moritz talk about his own spread trading model?

29:06 - Q2; Daniel: Can inflation market effects be incorporated into Trend Following strategies?

36:16 - Q3; Stasius: What techniques do you use to...