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Today we are joined by Nicky Ferguson, Founder of It's Not a Science, an energy markets research firm based in Basel, Switzerland. We talk about speculative positioning in oil and natural gas futures, and how to distinguish between price action driven by fundamentals and flows. We discuss real time indicators of oil supply and demand, and the time it takes various investors to absorb new information. Finally, we discuss the limitations of the DXY dollar index as a baseline for measuring commodity price returns, increased options flows given new players in the market, and ways to understand what's going on based on modes of oil transport. Join us for a deep dive with an oil trader turned business owner, for an expert view of the mechanics of the energy market.

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Episode TimeStamps:

02:46 - Introduction to Ferguson and It's Not a Science\t

09:42 - The major players in the energy markets\t

12:56 - Speculative vs. commercial\t

18:43 - Forecasting the flow\t

25:02 - What has caused spikes in nat gas?\t

27:15 - Financial flows in commodity markets\t

30:22 - Risk considerations\t

32:14 - The relationship between fundamentals and price action\t

34:28 - Measuring demand\t

36:09 - The findings from Ferguson's research\t

39:46 - Oil on water supply vs...