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So was this PREFU better than expected as a number of headlines suggested?\xa0

Answer: possibly. Possibly not.\xa0

What numbers were they looking at?\xa0

It's important to point out this is not retrospective. This is not stuff that has happened, therefore cannot be argued with.\xa0

This is a projection and the projection comes from Treasury. There are some numbers from their projections to ponder, such as we are not returning to surplus until 2026/27. That is now years after they first suggested they would.\xa0

That's strike one.\xa0

Strike two is tax revenue is dropping in terms of what they thought it would be.\xa0

Strike three is expenses are rising from what they originally thought.\xa0

Strike four is debt per GDP is worse.\xa0

Strike five is net Government bond issue, which is debt, to 2027 is worse.\xa0

Strike six is inflation is higher for longer.\xa0

So where is all this good news? Well, they see a little bit more growth.\xa0

Unemployment, although going up, isn't going to go up as much as they thought.\xa0

And that is about it.\xa0

In totality I am not seeing a net score card that is demonstrably better than they thought. When you look at the numbers, at the debt, the spend and the current account deficit, none of it is good at all.\xa0

The tired, old line the Government uses about us being not as badly off as others is technically true.\xa0

But given there are almost 200 countries in the world, it's not hard to line yourself up against a bunch of economic numpties. It is not aspirational in any way, shape or form to find a collection of failures and pump your tyres up by standing next to them.\xa0

The simple reality is there is no hiding from the real danger this economy is in. It is one of the few, among our trading partners with Germany being the other, that has reached recession.\xa0

We have spent more, we have borrowed more and we are still nowhere near close to even looking like achieving an annualised surplus.\xa0

Our saving grace might, might, be migration and that might lead to a boost in housing and alleviate the labour shortage.\xa0

But I think what has happened here is we are so punch drunk, so beaten down by the misery of the economic mess that anything, no matter how meagre, is grasped as some sort of shiny nugget in a desert of economic sand.\xa0

When you see where we were, i.e the rock star economy a handful of years ago, and where we are now there is little, if anything, to be proud of.\xa0

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