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The banks are busy reporting progress and their bottom lines at the moment. We had one last week, one yesterday, and another to come Thursday.
Given the banks role in our lives at the best of times, far less the worst, their story is worth following.
All of them have been hit badly. They're still profitable, and boy do they need to be. Once again, it's worth reminding ourselves how lucky we are in this part of the world that the industry is robust and profitable, and won't be yet another thing to worry about going forward.
Which might, just might, be a message to the Reserve Bank who appear to revel in being interfering sticky beaks. Movement on the LVRs is almost certain in the not-too-distant future, especially around investors.
I operate on the simple premise that if someone knows what they're doing, let them get on with it. Banks know what they are doing.
Interestingly one argues, there is still room to move on housing for investors. In other words, the headlines you may be reading are more dramatic than the reality.
Good news also that first home buyers are increasingly involved in housing. So hopefully reportage one day might just reflect that, not everyone is locked out and miserable.
They may well be up to their eyeballs in mortgage debt but at least they're on the ladder. But the banks are also telling us business lending isn't up to much yet because the confidence isn't there. Why not? Why aren't they? What about all this mad purchasing that’s going on? The booming sales of everything from water tanks, to TVs, to cars, to art, to home gym equipment, why aren't the people selling that stuff laughing?
Clearly not, or not enough of them.
Job data is out this week as well, that will be another insight.
The risk we run, is we think that because everyone's buying a weekend in Queenstown and a new Jaguar, Covid isn't an issue. But it is, and it’s a bigger issue than many seem to get, and the bank commentary tells us why.
If a business won't back themselves and their own story with lending, something's not right. Could be Europe, could be a lack of vaccine, could be closed borders, or it could be worries about the new government. It doesn't really matter, what matters is actions or lack of them.
Are we doing better than many thought? Probably. Are we out the other side? The numbers are there to be read if you want to, and we're not even close.