Steve Sjuggerud - This is Not What the Peak of a Bull Market Looks Like" | #49

Published: April 26, 2017, 5 p.m.

b'In Episode 49, we welcome Dr. Steve Sjuggerud. The conversation begins with Meb and Steve reminiscing about the origin of their friendship, which dates back some 10 years. This leads the guys into Steve\\u2019s background, and how he transitioned from being a broker into being the highly-popular investment newsletter writer he is today.\\nMeb asks Steve to describe his investing framework. Similar to Meb, Steve likes both value and trend. Specifically, he looks for 3 things: assets that are \\u201ccheap,\\u201d \\u201chated,\\u201d and \\u201cin an uptrend.\\u201d This methodology applies to all sorts of asset classes. The guys dig deeper into value and trend, leading to Steve ultimately to say, \\u201cIf I had to choose between one or the other, I would actually choose momentum over value.\\u201d Meb agrees.\\nNext, Meb asks how the world looks to Steve today. Is he buying? Defensive? Where\\u2019s he looking? And so on\\u2026\\nSteve tells there are always reasons to sell or stay out of the market. Despite this, Steve\\u2019s thesis is that interest rates will stay lower than you can imagine, longer than you can imagine. And this will drive asset classes higher than we can imagine. We\\u2019re still not at absurd equity levels yet here in the U.S. \\u2013 Steve says we\\u2019re maybe around the 7th or 8th inning of this bull market. But the biggest gains can often come at the end of a bull market, so there\\u2019s potentially more significant room to run.\\nAs the guys discuss this, the conversation tilts toward investor sentiment. They agree that irrational exuberance for this bull market simply doesn\\u2019t exist right now. There\\u2019s no euphoria. Steve sums it up simply: \\u201cThis is not what the peak of a bull market looks like.\\u201d\\nYeah, valuations are high, but interest rates are near historic lows. Relative to bond yields, the equity values are far more reasonable. Investors need to compare returns to what you can get through other asset classes.\\nThe guys jump around a bit, touching upon the warning signs Steve will look for to tip him off as to when to bail on U.S. stocks, a discussion of the Commitment of Traders report and how to use it, and then a discussion of U.S. housing and how it\\u2019s a solid investment right now because housing starts are nowhere near what they need to be to equalize supply and demand.\\xa0\\nThe guys then turn toward foreign equities, where it appears that value and trend are lining up. Foreign has been cheap for a while, but it\\u2019s been underperforming. And now that appears to be changing. Meb asks Steve to tell us what he\\u2019s seeing \\u2013 it generally boils down to one big thing: China.\\nYou\\u2019ll definitely want to listen to this part of the discussion, as Steve tells us about a revolution in mobile payments that\\u2019s already happened in China (and will likely happen here in the U.S.). But beyond that, Chinese stocks as a whole are now incredibly cheap. Even better, there are going to be tailwinds of adding Chinese stocks to a major index. I won\\u2019t get into the details here, but the analogy the guys use is having the teacher\\u2019s manual of a high school textbook with all the answers ahead of time. Best of all, Steve gives us the names of some actual ETFs that may benefit from this trend.\\nThere\\u2019s much more in this value-packed episode: gold and gold mining stocks\\u2026 Steve\\u2019s investment in St. Gaudens coins\\u2026 Steve\\u2019s surfboard and vintage guitar collections (including the story of a $30K guitar he bought and later sold for $72K)\\u2026 And of course, Steve\\u2019s most memorable trade \\u2013 which involved a painful 50% loss for Steve and his subscribers, all stemming from the lie of a certain global politician.\\nWhich politician and which lie? Find out in Episode 49.\\nLearn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices'