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In Episode 46, we welcome Real Vision TV co-founder, Raoul Pal. The guys start by going over a bit of Raoul\u2019s background.\nRaoul started his career by running equity and equity derivatives at Goldman Sachs. Through this, he learned the macro investing world. He then joined a hedge fund, managing its global macro fund before retiring at 36 on the coast of Spain. But it was then that Raoul decided to start a research service, the Global Macro Investor, aimed at large, institutional players.\nHowever, in 2008, Raoul realized the ordinary investor had been let down by the system and financial media. So, in an effort to help, Raoul founded Real Vision TV with Grant Williams. Real Vision features the smartest guys in the world teaching you how to invest, what their best ideas are, and so on\u2026\nAfter this background, the guys jump in, with Meb asking Raoul about his overall investing framework. Raoul tells us this whole game is about probabilities. To invest successfully, we look for times when the odds are in our favor. So, to look for these times, Raoul developed a system based on the business cycle \u2013 with a focus on GDP, as asset prices are moved by economic growth. The model relies heavily on findings from ISM reports (Institute for Supply Management). Raoul tells us that when looking at ISM numbers, it\u2019s not just the level that counts, but also the rate of change of those levels. Overall, this model helps forecast S&P levels, bond yields, inflation, world trade\u2026 basically everything!\nSo, what is it saying now?\n\u201cWe\u2019ve got to expect a recession this year or next year, or if we\u2019re at the wild extremes, the year after that.\u201d\nMeb brings up stats from Ned Davis, tying ISM levels to market returns. He says how last year, it appeared that ISM levels were rolling over, but then they steadied and now are a bit high. He asks Raoul what it means for us now.\nYou\u2019ll want to hear Raoul\u2019s response, which includes the possibility that asset prices may weaken soon \u2013 while bond yields may suffer significantly.\nMeb then points to Raoul\u2019s call of a potential short trade in oil. Raoul tell us that this is the largest speculation in oil \u2013 ever. Way too many people went long, and this speculative positioning is too far ahead of the actual business cycle. He says oil is maybe $10-$15 too high right now. It\u2019s coming close to being a perfect trade setup. Oil could hit as low as $30.\nNext, the guys discuss great opportunities around the globe. Raoul points to Cypress. Greek stocks are still hammered too. He says the upside could be huge \u2013 potentially 10x your money. Meb agrees, mentioning his own study about markets that have gone down big, or stayed down for many years. The upside is often spectacular.\nThe conversation then steers toward one the biggest emerging macro story in the world \u2013 India. You\u2019re going to want to hear this one. It\u2019s a fascinating story, and Raoul gives us actionable investment ideas.\nNext up \u2013 Bitcoin. Raoul gives us a quick primer on Bitcoin and blockchain technology. He tells us that many people are confused as to what, exactly, it is \u2013 currency? Investment? Raoul gives us his thoughts.\nThere\u2019s way more, as this episode is packed with great content. The guys talk about Google\u2019s and IBM\u2019s prospects as investments\u2026 artificial intelligence\u2026 making money entrepreneurially rather than through investing\u2026 and Raoul\u2019s most memorable trade \u2013 it\u2019s fascinating story involving the South African Rand that you don\u2019t want to miss.\nWhat are the details? Find out in Episode 46.\nLearn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices