Matt Hougan - Anyone Who Tells You They Know Whats Going to Happen in Crypto Is Probably Lying to You" | #109

Published: June 20, 2018, 5 p.m.

b'In Episode 109, we welcome ETF and crypto expert, Matt Hougan.\\nAfter a quick, fun story about Matt\\u2019s first job\\u2026as a 9-foot tall seal mascot for a minor league baseball team\\u2026Meb asks about the state of the ETF industry \\u2013 where we are today, and where we\\u2019re going.\\nMatt tells us that ETFs have become a dominant force in investing. Since the financial crisis, some $2 trillion of capital has flowed into ETFs. In comparison, the mutual fund industry has seen $0 inflows during that time. In terms of issues that are shaping ETFs and will continue to do so over the coming years, Matt points toward fee wars, distribution networks, and the growing reality that it\\u2019s getting harder for smaller companies to get a foothold within the ETF space. Overall, Matt believes the days of fastest ETF growth are in front of us.\\nReferencing back to the capital flows differential between ETFs and mutual funds since 2008, Meb asks if there will there be a Netflix/Blockbuster moment when the lion\\u2019s share of assets leaves mutual funds and flows into ETFs.\\nMatt believes the stream of asset migration will become a flood in the next bear market. He tells us the only thing that has kept mutual fund asset levels up is the bull market of the last decade. That\\u2019s created lots of embedded capital gains which many investors haven\\u2019t wanted to realize. Yet when a bear market finally hits\\u2026 Matt believes we\\u2019ll see accelerated flows out of mutual funds when we suffer our next 20% market drop.\\nNext, Meb brings up something which Matt has tracked for since 2008 \\u2013 the world\\u2019s lowest cost ETF portfolio. He started by taking the lowest-cost ETFs representing six major global asset classes. He was curious how much it would cost in order to get full global exposure. In 2008, the combined, blended fee to own the world was 16 basis points. Today, it\\u2019s down to just five basis points. Matt and Meb agree this is a great time to be an investor.\\xa0\\nThis bleeds into a discussion of direct index investing, which, Matt tell us, might be the next evolution of investing beyond ETFs. If you\\u2019re less familiar with direct index investing, it\\u2019s a way to own indexes, yet without paying a fund management fee, while enjoying the potential benefits of tax loss harvesting. This leads to an interesting discussion about implementing direct investing via robos, as well as the tradeoff between tracking risk and the potential for tax alpha.\\nThe guys touch on a few more ETF ideas \\u2013 broad concerns about the ETF market, active versus passive ETFs, and the use of artificial intelligence in replacing discretionary managers \\u2013 but it\\u2019s not long before Meb switches the conversation to crypto.\\nThough ETFs are Matt\\u2019s first love, he\\u2019s long been interested in cryptocurrencies, so he was excited at the chance to join Bitwise, creator of the first currency index. Giving us an overview of the crypto world, Matt tells us \\u201can index-based approach is the only sensible approach to the crypto market, because anyone who tells you they know what\\u2019s going to happen in crypto is probably lying to you.\\u201d\\nAt Meb\\u2019s request, Matt then describes how to put together a crypto index. Matt tells us the goal is to capture the broad-base crypto market. There are 1,500 cryptos out there, but most of the market cap is concentrated in the top 10-15 currencies. There are many challenges to creating an index, including such basics as \\u201chow many Bitcoin are there?\\u201d (Do you the current number, or what the number will be x years in the future?) Matt goes into interesting detail for us.\\nFinally, you\\u2019ll hear Matt\\u2019s answer to \\u201cif you had to buy one crypto and not touch it for 10 years, what would it be?\\u201d And of course, there\\u2019s Matt\\u2019s most memorable trade. This one lost him about 90%.\\nWhat are the details? Find out in Episode 109.\\nLearn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices'