Listener Q&A Episode | #42

Published: March 9, 2017, 12:36 a.m.

Episode 42 is a remote podcast with Meb calling in from Hawaii. Fortunately, the roosters in the background aren\u2019t loud enough to interfere...\nThough this is a Q&A episode, it\u2019s slightly different in nature. Rather than discuss listener questions, we\u2019re experimenting with using some of Meb\u2019s \u201ctweets of the week\u201d as our topics of conversation. It\u2019s a way of getting inside Meb\u2019s head a bit more. We\u2019d love your feedback, so love it or hate it, let us know how we can make this format (or any, for that matter) better and more beneficial for you.\nSome topics you\u2019ll hear covered in this episode include:\n-\xa0\xa0\xa0\xa0\xa0\xa0\xa0\xa0\xa0How do you know when your market strategy has lost its efficacy, versus when it\u2019s simply having a rough stretch, yet will rebound?\nDetails: One of Meb\u2019s tweets suggested \u201cAfter you read Buffett\u2019s new letter to investors, read this,\u201d which pointed toward his post about how Buffett\u2019s long-term returns have crushed those of nearly everyone else, though he\u2019s underperformed the market in 7 of the last 9 years. This brought to mind a question which Meb asked Ed Thorp: \u201cWhen do you know when a strategy has failed, versus when it is time to remain faithful, as reversion to the mean is likely about to happen?\u201d The Thorp answer was generally, \u201cDo your homework so you know whether your drawdown is within the normal range of probabilities, or something unique\u201d We push Meb on how a retail investor is supposed to do that.\n-\xa0\xa0\xa0\xa0\xa0\xa0\xa0\xa0\xa0With the VIX hovering around 11, is Meb considering buying LEAPS?\nDetails: If you\u2019re not an options guy, don\u2019t worry. Meb takes this question in a slightly different direction, discussing low volatility and options more in a \u201cportfolio insurance\u201d type of way. You buy insurance on your home and car, right? Buying puts at these low volatility levels has some similarities to buying portfolio insurance.\n-\xa0\xa0\xa0\xa0\xa0\xa0\xa0\xa0\xa0The last time stock market newsletters were this bullish was Jan. 1987. To what extent does this level of ubiquitous optimism get Meb nervous?\nDetails: Lots of indicators seems to be suggesting we\u2019re far closer to the end of this bull market than the beginning. Of course, that doesn\u2019t mean it\u2019s going to happen tomorrow. You\u2019ll hear Meb\u2019s take on various indicators and what he\u2019s taking away from them right now.\n-\xa0\xa0\xa0\xa0\xa0\xa0\xa0\xa0\xa0Newfound did a study, finding that the 60/40 model is predicting 0% through 2025. What are Meb\u2019s thoughts in general?\nDetails: Meb is not surprised by this prediction. He\u2019s discussed future returns based on starting valuations for a long time. But if you\u2019re somewhat new to the podcast, this is a great primer on how Meb views potential returns of various asset classes going forward.\nThere\u2019s plenty more, including something Cliff Asness referred to as \u201cdeeply irrelevant,\u201d how advisers can excel as robos continue changing the investment landscape, Meb\u2019s experience at a recent Charlie Munger speech, and Meb\u2019s issue with Tony Robbins.\nWhat is it? Find out in Episode 42.\nLearn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices