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In honor of this Sunday\u2019s Super Bowl, Episode 38 is a special, bonus \u201cgambling\u201d podcast. We welcome mystery guest, E.V. Better, which is an alias for \u201cExpected Value Better.\u201d\nMeb starts by asking E.V. how he got to this point in his career. E.V. had a traditional finance background, working at a long/short hedge fund for 5 years, but realized he could apply certain predictive analytics that work in the financial world to the sports betting world. He helped create a basketball model at Dr. Bob Sports and enjoyed it so much that he made the jump from traditional finance.\nNext, Meb requests a quick primer for the non-gamblers out there; for instance, how the various types of bets works, the \u201clines,\u201d the most popular bets, and so on. E.V. gives us the breakdown.\nThe conversation then drifts toward examples of \u201cfactors\u201d when it comes to gambling (such as \u201cvalue\u201d or \u201cmomentum\u201d is in the stock market). E.V. tells us there are really two schools of thought in traditional investing \u2013 fundamental and technical investing. When it comes to gambling, there are similarly two schools of thought; you have the strength of a team that\u2019s measured by traditional stats (for example, net yards per pass) or technical factors (having been on the road for 14 days\u2026having suffered 3 straight blow-out losses). When you combine these two factors, you better a better idea of which way to go with your wager.\nThese leads to two questions from Meb: One, how many inputs go into a multi-factor model? And, two, how do you replace older factors that don\u2019t have as much influence or predictive power as they used to? E.V. gives us his thoughts.\nMeb asks about \u201cweird\u201d or interesting factors that are effective. E.V. points toward \u201ctravel distance,\u201d though the effect has diminished over time as travel has become easier. He also points toward \u201cfield type.\u201d This leads into a discussion about betting against the consensus (contrarian investor, anyone?). And this leads into a common investing mistake \u2013 recency bias. For example, because the Broncos won the Super Bowl last year, people expected them to be great again this year\u2026and they didn\u2019t even make the playoffs (Meb is still bitter).\nMeb steers the direction away from the NFL. Whether basketball, baseball, or whatever other sport, you\u2019re simply trying to find an edge over the house. Meb brings up \u201cvariability\u201d (the more games the better if you have a slight edge), and asks how this changes over different sports.\nE.V. says duration of season is a huge factor. Also, the level of data available for analysis is key (for example, the amount of data in baseball is amazing). But overall, E.V. says the goal is reduce the variance to make thing as simple and predictive as possible to find your edge.\nFinally, we get to the topic du jour \u2013 the Super Bowl. Meb asks E.V. directly, \u201cWho do you like with New England at -3?\u201d If you\u2019re thinking about betting this Sunday, don\u2019t miss it.\nThere\u2019s far more in this bonus episode, including discussion of betting on the results of the Super Bowl\u2019s coin toss\u2026 How long it will take for Luke Bryan to sing the National Anthem\u2026 How many times will \u201cGronkowski\u201d will be said by the commentators during the Super Bowl broadcast\u2026 Want to put the odds in your favor? Then join us for Episode 38.\nLearn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices