Bryan Taylor - At Some Point, the Stresses Are Going to Be So Great that Some of the Countries (In the European Union) Are Eventually Forced to Leave" | #110

Published: June 27, 2018, 12:30 p.m.

b'In Episode 110, we welcome author and market data expert, Dr. Bryan Taylor.\\nMeb begins by asking how Bryan built the massive financial database that is Global Financial Data. Bryan walks us through how the database developed over time.\\nThe conversation soon turns to Bryan\\u2019s book, Debts, Defaults, Depression and Other Delightful Ditties from the Dismal Science. Bryan tells us this is actually the first of two books. It includes stories about the past that people might find interesting \\u2013 some of the crazy things that have happened in the financial markets, as well as an inference about what that might mean for the future. The follow-up book will focus on a number of specific cases, from The East India Company, all the way up to some of Trump\\u2019s companies.\\nNext, Meb changes gears \\u2013 there are a few contenders getting close to becoming the first $1T company. Meb uses this as a chance to look back at the first $1B company.\\nBryan tells us that title goes to Standard Oil. He then walks us through its history, including its practice of pushing prices down to drive competitors into bankruptcy, the Sherman Anti-trust Act, the break-up of Standard Oil, and the effect on shareholders.\\nThis conversation dovetails into a conversation about which company today \\u2013 Apple, Amazon, Facebook, or Google \\u2013 is more likely to face a threat from government oversight. Listen in to get Bryan\\u2019s thoughts.\\nThe guys then get into inflation. It turns out, the 20th Century had the highest inflation ever. What might be in store for us in the 21st Century? Bryan and Meb discuss this, touching on various governments\\u2019 ability to pay debt, growth rates, Bryan\\u2019s red-flag metric (when the interest coverage ratio to GDP exceeds 5%), as well as the most likely path for US and global interest rates.\\nMeb then uses his recent trip to Greece as a springboard for a discussion about the future of the EU. Bryan tells us it\\u2019s an all-or-nothing situation. And the concern now isn\\u2019t over Greece, it\\u2019s over Italy. It might be the first country to drop out of the Euro. If so, it will face severe consequences in trying to be independent. Plus, it could have a domino effect, leading to other countries leaving and the entire system falling apart. He concludes by telling us that \\u201cat some point, the stresses are going to be so great that some of the countries (in the European Union) are eventually forced to leave.\\u201d\\nNext, Meb moves toward Asia. He brings up a quote from Bryan about the future market-cap of Asian stock markets (as the biggest in the world) and asks if this is a no-brainer \\u201cbuy Asia\\u201d right now. Bryan gives us his thoughts but notes that Asia has lots of internal issues that need solving before they can challenge the US as the primary engine of returns going forward.\\nNext up is an interesting discussion of what investing used to be like, how it changed, and how it might change for us going forward. The conversation touches on investing in the 1800s, how World War I flipped everything on its head, and the current concern of nationalism.\\nThere\\u2019s plenty more in this episode \\u2013 the need to be conscious of how integrated global markets are these days\\u2026 the historical period that most closely resembles today\\u2019s investing climate\\u2026 what Bryan is working on now\\u2026 And Bryan\\u2019s most memorable trade.\\nGet all the details in Episode 110.\\nLearn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices'