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Eurasia expert Kristofer Harrison makes the case for why the odds of an invasion of Armenia by Azerbaijan are much higher than the market price on Polymarket.

3:54: Interview with Harrison begins

5:06: Do hedge funds use political betting insights?

7:10: Background on Armenia and Azerbaijan

7:56: Why there are tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan

12:15: Russia's role in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict

14:29: Domestic politics in Armenia

15:18: Evidence that Azerbaijan is serious about invading

17:44: Why hasn't Azerbaijan already invaded Armenia?

18:43: Balance of power between Azerbaijan and Armenia

20:37: Have Russia and/orTurkey greenlighted an invasion?

22:08: Will the West stop a war?

24:12: Odds of an invasion

27:24: Influence of the weather in Nagorno-Karabach

29:57: How rogue is Aliyev?

33:43: Religion in Azerbaijan

35:05: How much does Azerbaijan care about international investment?

36:55: How keep up with news related to the Azerbaijan-Armenia market

38:44: Will Putin still be in power by the end of the year?

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