5.7 It's raining again, sell my futures position

Published: Nov. 8, 2020, 4:26 p.m.

In 2019 a eruption in the European power futures market put into stark light that models are unable to capture dynamics in the real world.  Those that prefer the comfort of a risk model state that the events were one in a thousand.  This is completely mad and yet we continue to hear the "this is a five/six/ten standard deviation event" as an argument for misdemeanour.  Time to look elsewhere and sometimes grab a lawyer.


(Apologies for using the cover the Supertramp album that had a favourite song I reference in the title )

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