The Real Estate News Brief: Fed Minutes Reveal Rate Hike Clues, Homebuyer Competition Heats Up, Back-to-Office Migration Hits Plateau

Published: July 11, 2023, 4:22 a.m.

In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending July 8th, 2023... what\u2019s on the minds of Fed officials, how homebuyer competition is impacting prices, and what isn\u2019t happening with the back-to-office migration.\xa0 \xa0 Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. \xa0 Economic News \xa0 We begin with economic news from this past week and the release of the minutes from the central bank\u2019s last policy meeting. As you know, members of the Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously in favor of a pause in rate hikes, but the minutes show that some members were in favor of another 25 point increase. The minutes also noted that the economy has been stronger than expected and that Fed officials don\u2019t see a lot of \u201cclear signs\u201d that inflation is headed to their 2% target. (1) Fed Chief Jerome Powell has said that more rate hikes are likely. We\u2019ll get two inflation reports in the coming week that will give us a better idea of what\u2019s happening with inflation. \xa0 The job market also remains strong, although the latest reports show a slight weakening and some economists don\u2019t think it\u2019s enough to avoid another rate hike. The unemployment report was up 12,000 from the previous week to a two-year high of 248,000 initial claims. But the number of ongoing claims was down 13,000 to 1.72 million. It\u2019s the third week in a row that they went down. As MarketWatch reports, the decrease in continuing claims is probably due to laid-off workers finding new jobs quickly, thanks to a strong job market. Although it\u2019s great that people are employed, Fed officials feel that it also contributes to wage growth and inflation, which they are trying to control. (2) \xa0 The Labor Department also reported that job openings fell below the 10 million mark in May, which is another sign that the labor market is cooling slightly. (3) And companies only added 209,000 jobs in June. That\u2019s the smallest number of new jobs since 2020, but the unemployment rate also fell from 3.7% to 3.6%. Average hourly pay is also up about 4.4% on an annual basis. (4) Most of the new jobs are for education, health, and the government, but construction jobs are also among the industries contributing to labor market growth. \xa0 Mortgage Rates \xa0 Mortgage rates are defying gravity and slowly creeping higher. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 6.81%, but Mortgage News Daily says it hit 7% this last week. Freddie\u2019s chief economist Sam Khater blames the high rates on the strong economy, sticky inflation, the Fed\u2019s rate hikes, and of course, a persistent low inventory of homes. (5) (6) \xa0 In other news making headlines\u2026 \xa0 Homes Selling Above Asking Price One Again \xa0 Homes are selling above their asking price for the first time in almost a year. Redfin says the average sale-to-list price ratio hit 100.1% for the four weeks that ended on July 2nd. The report says low inventory is the main reason for the higher sales price. (7) \xa0 Redfin says that new listings are down 25% from a year ago, and the total number of homes for sale is down 12%. There\u2019s no lack of demand however. Redfin says that requests for home tours and other services are up 4% compared to a month earlier. \xa0 Agent Jeremy Lewis out of Portland, Oregon,\xa0 says: \u201cAlmost every home is getting multiple offers and selling over asking price. The lack of supply is making it feel almost like 2021 all over again.\u201d Although he says the bidding wars are happening at a lower price point because buyers are getting squeezed by higher mortgage rates. \xa0 Return to the Office Hit a Plateau at 50% \xa0 Companies trying to get employees back in the office have hit a plateau. According to security company Kastle Systems, U.S. office workers are back in their offices about 50% of the time. The national average was actually a little less than that at 49.8% in late June. Kastle analyzes office usage in 10 U.S. metros. That\u2019s up from about 40% last year but the number hasn\u2019t changed much since the beginning of this year. (8) \xa0 Some companies are cracking down on employees to get them into the office. Citigroup is reportedly threatening employees with \u201cconsequences\u201d if they don\u2019t conform to the hybrid schedule. That\u2019s usually three days a week. Google is also warning employees that office attendance will be part of their performance review.\xa0 \xa0 Texas Lawmakers Approve Huge Cut in Property Taxes! \xa0 In breaking news out of Texas \u2013 State lawmakers are making it a whole lot more affordable to own property with the largest property tax cut in state history! It\u2019s not quite a done deal yet, but the Texas House and Senate have agreed to an $18 billion dollar package to reduce property taxes. $12 billion will go toward a reduction in the school property tax for all homeowners and businesses. It also includes a $100,000 homestead exemption and a 20% limit on appraisal growth for non-homesteaded properties worth at least $5 million. \xa0 According to Houston Public Media, state lawmakers expect to pass the bill by the end of the week, and Governor Greg Abbott is looking forward to signing it when it reaches his desk. \xa0 The news is a big win for our North Dallas Rental Fund where we are buying single-family rentals for our fund investors. We\u2019ll be going into more detail on the tax deal and the rental fund during a webinar on July 11th. If you miss it, you can always catch the replay at our website. \xa0 That\u2019s it for today. Check the show notes for links at newsforinvestors.com. And hit the Join for Free button to become a RealWealth member. You\u2019ll have access to lots of data on buying rental real estate for our financial freedom, including the webinar I just mentioned. And please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review! \xa0 Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke. \xa0 Links: \xa0 1 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/some-fed-officials-pushed-for-june-rate-hike-minutes-show-6007d897 \xa0 2 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-climb-to-248-000-after-big-increases-in-michigan-and-new-york-97638580?mod=economy-politics \xa0 3 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/job-openings-in-the-u-s-drop-to-9-8-million-labor-market-still-too-strong-for-the-fed-e064b516?mod=economy-politics \xa0 4 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobs-report-shows-209-000-gain-in-june-smallest-increase-since-end-of-2020-fb8f7bd1?mod=economic-report \xa0 5 - https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms \xa0 6 - https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-07072023 \xa0 7 - https://www.nar.realtor/magazine/real-estate-news/mortgage-rates-hit-highest-average-so-far-this-year \xa0 8 - https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-homes-selling-above-asking-price/ \xa0 9 - https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/politics/2023/07/10/456500/texas-house-senate-property-taxes-deal-18-billion-package/