The Wide and Foggy Road

Published: June 10, 2024, 2:02 p.m.

Every three months, the 19 members of the Federal Reserve\u2019s Federal Open Market Committee, of FOMC for short, aided, no doubt, by an army of econometric minions, work up new forecasts for key economic variables and their assessment of appropriate monetary policy.\xa0 In recent days, as they have huddled in their offices engaged on this task, they\u2019ve had much to be thankful for.\xa0 The economic roller coaster triggered by the pandemic and the policy response, which manifested itself in wild swings in output, unemployment and inflation, has subsided.\xa0 Moreover, the very narrow road by which they thought inflation could be subdued without triggering a recession, turned out to be not so narrow after all.\xa0 The U.S. economy has maintained solid economic growth and a very tight labor market even as inflation has fallen towards their 2% objective.