Across the economy, the outlook is for slower growth.\xa0 Slower growth in demand, in employment, in profits and in inflation.\xa0 Recession is by no means certain.\xa0 However, a slow-growing economy is rather like a slow-moving bicycle \u2013 the slower its moves, the easier it is to topple it over.\xa0 And so, in the spring of 2023, there is a significant risk of recession starting before the end of the year.