Recession Risks: Standing on the Edge of a Swamp

Published: Nov. 15, 2022, 4 p.m.

Markets bounced higher last week in a justifiable show of enthusiasm as the latest CPI data confirmed that inflation is indeed receding.\xa0 However, even as investors worry less about inflation they may well worry more about recession.\xa0 The risk of a near-term recession is climbing.\xa0 However, such a recession would be more like sliding into an economic swamp than falling off an economic cliff.\xa0 While a \u201cswamp\u201d recession wouldn\u2019t be very deep, the economy would likely struggle to get out of it.\xa0 The good news for investors is that a prolonged period of economic swampiness should snuff out inflation and force the Federal Reserve to reverse a significant part of their 2022 tightening.