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Ernie Tedeschi on Full Employment, the US Safe Harbor Premium, and the Current Path of R-Star
Ernie Tedeschi is the Director of Economics at the Budget Lab and is a visiting fellow at the Psaros Center for Financial Markets and Policy. Recently, Ernie was a chief economist at the White House\u2019s Council of Economic Advisors, and he is also a returning guest to the podcast. Ernie rejoins Macro Musings to talk about the CEA and some of his recent work on the political risks to the US safe harbor premium and R-star. David and Ernie also discuss the benefits and healing properties of a high employment economy, Ernie\u2019s favorite measures of the labor market, the current and past trends in the path of R-Star, and more.
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Transcript for this week\u2019s episode.
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Ernie\u2019s Twitter: @ernietedeschi
Ernie\u2019s Budget Lab profile
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David Beckworth\u2019s Twitter:\xa0@DavidBeckworth
Follow us on Twitter:\xa0@Macro_Musings
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Join the new Macro Musings\xa0Discord server!
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Related Links:
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*Political Risks to the U.S. Safe Harbor Premium* by Ernie Tedeschi
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*Recent Movements in [R-star]: The Most Important Interest Rate That You have Never Heard Of* by Ernie Tedeschi
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*The 2024 Economic Report of the President* by the White House Council of Economic Advisers
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*The Fed Governor Who Proved Larry Summers Wrong* by Nick Timiraos
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*Summers, Blanchard Say Waller\u2019s \u2018Soft-Landing\u2019 Paper Has Errors* by Craig Torres
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Timestamps:
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(00:00:00) \u2013 Intro
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(00:01:49) \u2013 Ernie\u2019s Experience at the CEA
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(00:09:15) \u2013 The Benefits and Healing Properties of a High Employment Economy
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(00:15:28) \u2013 Ernie\u2019s Favorite Measures of the Labor Market
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(00:20:17) \u2013 The Broader Debate Surrounding Labor Market Measures
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(00:24:07) \u2013 The Basics of a US Safe Harbor Premium
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(00:28:56) \u2013 Political Risk vs. Exorbitant Privilege
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(00:33:46) \u2013 Debt Ceiling Crises as a Political Risk Scenario
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(00:37:01) \u2013 Fiscal Dominance as a Political Risk Scenario
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(00:43:25) \u2013 Outlining the Distinction Between Different R-Stars
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(00:48:39) \u2013 Past and Current Trends in the Path of R-Stars
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(00:54:46) \u2013 Assessing the Sources of High Productivity
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(00:58:22) \u2013 Outro