Recently leaked court documents during the Microsoft Activision hearing require us to revisit our cloud forecasts and market share data. The poorly redacted docs, which have since been removed from public viewing, suggest that Microsoft\u2019s Azure revenue is at least 25% lower than our previous estimates. As a result, we\u2019ve cut and revised our Azure revenue figures which in turn increases AWS\u2019 big 4 hyperscale cloud market share. Our new estimates show that AWS maintains a greater than 50% share of revenue through 2023. While the change also helps Google Cloud, its market share is only modestly affected.\xa0
In this Breaking Analysis we update our hyperscaler cloud revenue estimates and market share data. We\u2019ll also explain how the ETR data on cloud should be interpreted in this context and look forward to potential catalysts for cloud growth, including acceleration in Q4 attributable to generative AI.
Microsoft annual 10K:
https://microsoft.gcs-web.com/static-files/e2931fdb-9823-4130-b2a8-f6b8db0b15a9
Wikibon repatriation report:
https://wikibon.com/breaking-analysis-desperately-seeking-cloud-repatriation/
SiliconANGLE article on leaked court documents with Azure revenue data:
Constellation report on cloud optimization:
https://www.constellationr.com/blog-news/private-cloud-compelling-option-cios-insights-new-research