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https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/ukraine-warcasting

Yeah, I know you\u2019re saturated with Ukraine content. Yeah, I know everyone wants to relate their hobbyhorse to Ukraine. But I think it\u2019s genuinely useful to talk about prediction markets right now.

Current conventional wisdom is that the invasion was a miscalculation on Putin\u2019s part, after he surrounded himself with so many yes-men that he lost touch with reality. But Ukraine miscalculated too; until almost the day of the invasion, Zelenskyy was saying everything would be okay. And if there\u2019s a nuclear exchange, it will be because of miscalculation - I don\u2019t know what the miscalculation will be, just that nobody goes into a nuclear exhange because they want to. Preserving people\u2019s access to reality and helping them avoid miscalculations are peacekeeping measures, sometimes very important ones.

The first part of this post looks at various markets\u2019 predictions of how the war will go from here (Zvi published something like this a few hours before I could, so this will mostly duplicate his work). The second part very briefly tries to evaluate which markets have been most accurate so far - though this is a topic which deserves at least paper-length treatment. The third part looks at which pundits deserve eternal glory for publicly making strong true predictions, and which pundits deserve . . . something else, for doing . . . other things.