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Thanks to the 3295 of you who participated in Stage 1 of the 2023 Prediction Contest (\u201cBlind Mode\u201d). This is now closed. You can keep submitting Blind Mode answers if you want, but they won\u2019t count and you can\u2019t win.

Stage 2 (\u201cFull Mode\u201d) is now upon us! Your job is now to use any resources you choose, to get predictions as accurate as you can. There\u2019s no such thing as cheating, short of time travel or murdering competitors! Resources you might want to use include:

• Your own original research, for as much effort as you want to put into this. I\u2019m only offering $500 prizes this year, so don\u2019t spend too much time. But you can if you want.

• Prediction markets and forecasting tournaments on these questions. It\u2019s not worth copying these verbatim - their management will be submitting their own entries, and if they win I\u2019ll credit it to them and not you - but you can use them as resources or a place to start.

• The 3295 blind mode answers. You can get them as an XLSX at

  2023blindmode Predictions 1.81MB \u2219 XLSX File Download

  or http://slatestarcodex.com/Stuff/2023blindmode_predictions.xlsx , or get them as a .csv at http://slatestarcodex.com/Stuff/2023blindmode_predictions.csv . Feel free to take the average or otherwise run fancy aggregation algorithms on them. When respondents gave permission, I included their ACX Survey answers. If you want to double-weight people with PhDs, or exclude all Australians, or test whether forecasting accuracy is correlated with how vividly people dream, now you have the data you need.

The form will ask you for a short description of what strategy you used - if you win, I\u2019ll probably contact you later asking for more details.

You can enter your Full Mode predictions on the same form, https://forms.gle/Caxh4TxEVZqrw9yV8