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https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/29/predictions-for-2020/

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At the beginning of every year, I\xa0make predictions. At the end of every year, I\xa0score them. So here are a hundred more for 2020.

Rules: all predictions are about what will be true on January 1, 2021. Some predictions about my personal life, or that refer to the personal lives of other people, have been redacted to protect their privacy. I\u2019m using the full 0 \u2013 100 range in making predictions this year, but they\u2019ll be flipped and judged as 50 \u2013 100 in the rating stage, just like in previous years. I\u2019ve tried to avoid doing specific research or looking at prediction markets when I made these, though some of them I already knew what the markets said.

Feel free to get in a big fight over whether 50% predictions are meaningful.

CORONAVIRUS:
1. Bay Area lockdown (eg restaurants closed) will be extended beyond June 15: 60%
2. \u2026until Election Day: 10%
3. Fewer than 100,000 US coronavirus deaths: 10%
4. Fewer than 300,000 US coronavirus deaths: 50%
5. Fewer than 3 million US coronavirus deaths: 90%
6. US has highest official death toll of any country: 80%
7. US has highest death toll as per expert guesses of real numbers: 70%
8. NYC widely considered worst-hit US city: 90%