Podcasts Technology Astral Codex Ten Podcast Mantic Monday: Dogs In Wizard Hats

Mantic Monday: Dogs In Wizard Hats

Published: Dec. 28, 2021, 11:52 a.m.

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-dogs-in-wizard-hats

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I found this YouTube explainer about prediction markets on the subreddit. It\u2019s pretty good! My small nitpicks are that it overestimates their accuracy relative to traditional forecasters (it focuses on markets beating forecasters in 2008, but I don\u2019t think this is consistent) and underestimates their resilience against bad actors trying to skew the probabilities. Still, this will be my go-to source when someone wants a short explanation of what these are and why I\u2019m so excited.

Futuur Soon

Last week I mentioned a new prediction market called Futuur . Today we\u2019ll look at it in more depth.

Futuur sends non-Americans to their real money markets and Americans to their play money markets (because of the US\u2019 unique anti-prediction-market regulations).

Their play money markets are awful: