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Published: May 25, 2023, 10:50 a.m.

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-52223

Whales v. Minnows // US v. Itself // EPJ v. The Veil Of Time // Balaji v. Medlock

Manifold is a play money prediction market. Its intended purpose is to have fun and estimate the probabilities of important events. But instead of betting on important events, you might choose to speculate on trivialities. And instead of having fun, you might choose to ruin your life.

From the beginning, there were joke markets like \u201cWill at least 100 people bet on this market?\u201d or \u201cWill this market\u2019s probability end in an even number?\u201d While serious people worked on increasingly sophisticated estimation mechanisms for world events, pranksters worked on increasingly convoluted jokes. In early April, power user Is. started \u201cWhales Vs. Minnows\u201d: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares? In other words, Team Whale had to sink lots of mana (play money) into the market, and Team Minnow had to get lots of people to participate.

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