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What do Sam Altman, Matt Bruenig, and the Sacramento Kings have in common? -- Are the polls wrong? -- CFTC vs. Everybody

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-101722

Polls this year look bad for Senate Republicans. Pollsters\u2019 simulations give them a 22% chance (Economist), 34% chance (538), or 37% chance (RaceToTheWH) of taking power. Even Mitch McConnell has admitted he has only \u201ca 50-50 proposition\u201d of winning.

But polls did pretty badly last election. \u201dLeast accurate in 40 years\u201d, said Politico. On average they overestimated Biden\u2019s support by four points, maybe because Republicans distrust pollsters and refuse to answer their questions. Might the same thing be happening this year? If so, does it give Republicans reason for optimism?

Prediction markets say . . . kind of!